Bottom line
- ConfirmedCorrection: last run's 'Likely 18–20 dead' for the Shabwa strike was wrong. The toll is 53+ killed, ~200 wounded. Early casualty counts are floors.
- LikelyRed Sea front: the Houthis claim six strikes on Saudi oil sites and airports in 48 h; Saudi Arabia postpones FII to 2027.
- ContestedHormuz: CENTCOM confirms a ship sunk after an Iranian attack; Rubio says Iran exports zero oil; the IRGC threatens undersea cables.
- ConfirmedThe global bond selloff, not oil, is driving markets: US 10y 5.15%, KOSPI −4.3% on an AI-credit scare, gold down on yields.
- ConfirmedAge-verification wave (Germany, Norway, Florida) runs through state ID wallets; Pegasus found on Serbian opposition phones.
Brent$109.9+0.29%
WTI$98.86+0.33%
TTF gas€86.5-1.72%
Diesel (HO)$4.762+0.75%
Gold$4138-0.53%
US 10y%5.15+0.74%
KOSPI5522-4.26%
VIX18.44-7.75%
Stories
- Military action Houthi strike on Shabwa camp kills 53+, wounds ~200 Confirmed
- Military action Houthis claim six strikes on Saudi oil sites and airports in 48 h Unverified
- Money & central banks Saudi Arabia postpones FII 'Davos in the desert' to 2027 Confirmed
- Military action Coalition claims 1,164 strikes on Houthis and gains in Taiz; Sanaa reports 110 Saudi raids in a day Unverified
- Movements & posture Pakistan pledges 'whatever support is needed' to Saudi Arabia; Egypt delays troop vote Confirmed
- Shipping & chokepoints 15+ vessels struck in Hormuz in 10 days; CENTCOM confirms a container ship sunk Confirmed
- Shipping & chokepoints Iran's 'Hormuz Strait Management Organization' says 122 ships violated its rules Likely
- Shipping & chokepoints IRGC spokesman makes veiled threat to 7 undersea internet cables under Hormuz Confirmed
- Energy & reserves Rubio: Iran exporting zero oil; Iranian terminals empty under the US blockade Likely
- Military action Iran says the US struck Konarak naval base; a US official denies it Contested
- Shipping & chokepoints Iran: attacks on Caspian shipping aim to split Russia and Iran; asks Moscow to reinforce ports Unverified
- Movements & posture Lavrov in Tehran; Pakistan's army chief Munir due next Likely
- Energy & reserves US lets some dark-fleet tankers shed sanctions, Wright says Confirmed
- Energy & reserves Iraq's October exports top 3.4 mb/d, near pre-war; Basra–Aqaba pipeline pushed Likely
- Energy & reserves Wright: US gas prices have peaked; Brent holds near $110 Contested
- Military action Russian drone strike on a park in Nova Vodolaha kills civilians including children Confirmed
- Movements & posture Pentagon delays allied-paid Patriots to Ukraine; Trump: 'I'm supporting stopping the war' Likely
- Energy & reserves Annexed Crimea starts lifting fuel rationing after months of shortages Likely
- Movements & posture Keen Sword 27: NMESIS and MADIS deployed to Yonaguni for the first time Confirmed
- Macro & sanctions Italy to deploy troops in Milan after youth protests; Paris restricts the Champs-Élysées Confirmed
- Money & central banks KOSPI falls 4% on the 'CoreWeave credit shock' as Asia sells AI Confirmed
- Money & central banks Lagarde: euro-area bond selloff will weigh on growth Confirmed
- Money & central banks PBoC to make the overnight reverse repo its policy rate; LPR held for 17th month Confirmed
- Money & central banks Iran: street dollar hits 262,000 toman; industry faces ~130% inflation Likely
- Money & central banks RBI tightens scrutiny of $1bn+ outward investment amid rupee pressure Confirmed
- Money & central banks Argentina country risk hits yearly high of 675 bp; Milei says the dollar isn't lagging Confirmed
- Money & central banks Nigeria: a fuel-subsidy return could push the naira to ₦4,000, warns the finance minister Confirmed
- Food & fertilizer Brazil soy planting reaches 26%; excess rain slows Paraná Confirmed
- Food & fertilizer Korea's NongHyup cuts urea prices 13.9% despite the Hormuz crisis Confirmed
- Food & fertilizer Ukraine in talks with Turkey, Egypt and India on a protected Black Sea grain corridor Likely
- Food & fertilizer India's rabi crops threatened by rain deficits and El Niño Likely
- Digital ID & surveillance Germany sets graduated social-media age rules ahead of its d-you ID wallet Confirmed
- Digital ID & surveillance Norway extends its under-16 social-media ban to games and messaging apps Confirmed
- Digital ID & surveillance Hong Kong to wire mall CCTV into the police surveillance net; facial recognition coming Likely
- Digital ID & surveillance Pegasus found on two more Serbian opposition figures before elections Confirmed
- Digital ID & surveillance World ID brings iris-scan 'proof of human' to banking and AI agents Confirmed
- Digital ID & surveillance Japan launches My Number card on Android phones Confirmed
- Digital ID & surveillance Citizen Lab: Israeli firm used ad networks to give spyware vendors targeting reach Likely
- Digital ID & surveillance EFF: police should need a warrant for licence-plate-reader data Confirmed
- Digital ID & surveillance Iran: internet quality shifts hourly; several VPNs failing at once signals protocol filtering Likely
Open contradictions
- Hormuz tanker fires: mines or strikes? — open: Attacks now Likely for part of the series (CENTCOM: ship sunk after an Iranian attack); counts cumulative
- Saudi helicopter: malfunction or shoot-down — open: Contested
- 1,015 drones 'shot down' over Russia — open: MoD figure is an upper bound
- US missile warnings to Ukraine — open: Partial resumption; cause disputed
- Iran fuel self-sufficiency — open: Demand suppression framed as a win
- Refinery strikes vs diesel prices — open: Short-run data contradicts
- US strike on Konarak naval base? — open: Contested; small claimed scale, no imagery
- Nova Vodolaha park strike toll — open: Early tolls are floors; Likely ≥6
- Is Hormuz choking Gulf urea? — open: No scarcity priced yet
- US SPR level — open: Check the 21 Oct WPSR
Blind spots: The 07:00 scheduled run was lost to a power cut (manual run, 13 h window). Pakistan, South Africa and Japan are thin. The BIS rate for Argentina is stale (2025-07). The Caspian shipping attacks are carried only by Iranian, Russian and Al Mayadeen sources.